The US recession “is very likely over”

美聯儲(Fed)主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)昨日表示，美國經濟衰退“很可能已經結束”。數據顯示，上月美國零售銷售出現了逾3年以來最快的增長。 ,;UVQwY  
　　The US recession “is very likely over”, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, said yesterday as data showed retail sales rose last month at the fastest rate in more than three years. ny{|{a  
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　　由于廣受歡迎的“舊車換現金”汽車補貼計劃預期的提振作用，加之其它支出令人意外的回升，零售銷售額增長了2.7%。 xa
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　　Sales rose 2.7 per cent, with the expected boost from the popular “cash for clunkers” car rebate programme accompanied by a surprise pick-up in other spending. {D$#m  
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　　這引發了人們的希望：美國消費者可能正從樓市崩塌的瓦礫、股市的過山車表現以及不斷攀升的失業率中走出。 )~rN{W<s`H  
　　This raised hopes that US consumers might be re-emerging from the rubble of the housing market collapse, the roller-coaster ride in equities markets and rising unemployment. YMC*<wXN  
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　　三菱東京UFJ銀行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ)的克里斯•魯普基(Chris Rupkey)表示：“這是持續全面復蘇模式中消費者的表現。美聯儲應該停止談論它的退出策略，而應該開始將其付諸實施——如果數據繼續看好的話。” g;vG6!;E\  
　　“This is a consumer that is in a lasting full recovery mode,” said Chris Rupkey, at the Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ. “The Fed is going to need to stop talking about its exit strategy and start implementing it if today's data keeps up.” C}#JvNyQ  
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　　其他人則更為謹慎，因為8月份是開學月。富國銀行(Wells Fargo)的亞當•約克(Adam York)表示：“我想看看這是否只是一個月的反彈，還是真正的趨勢�！� IrJCZsk  
　　Others were more cautious, pointing out that August was the back-to-school month. “I'd like to see if this is just a one-month bounce or an actual trend,” said Adam York, at Wells Fargo. RY/9Ku `  
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　　許多經濟學家認為，家庭獲取信貸渠道的匱乏和他們減少債務的意愿，將在數月期間遏制消費者支出。 <t&0[l  
　　Many economists believe that consumer spending will be constrained for months by households' limited access to credit and their desire to reduce their debts. zJOL\J'  
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　　然而，在很長一段時間近乎停滯的支出之后，對一些商品可能存在被壓制的需求。 k#&d`?X  
　　However, after a long period of near-stagnant spending, there may be pent-up demand for some goods. g7rn|<6FI  
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　　伯南克對經濟復蘇狀況仍持謹慎態度，他未對銷售額數據做出直接置評。 w>J|416  
　　Mr Bernanke, who did not comment directly on the sales report, remained cautious about the shape of the recovery. gYw4YP0Gz  
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　　他表示，他預期2010年會出現“溫和”復蘇——增長率“不會超出潛在經濟增長率太多”，即3%左右。 cE$7CSR  
　　He said he expected a “moderate” recovery in 2010 with growth “not much faster than the underlying potential growth rate of the economy” – which means around 3 per cent. Q!iM7C!8  
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　　在已經結束的“舊車換現金”計劃的提振下，8月份汽車及汽車零部件的銷售大幅增長了10.6%；加油站的銷售也因油價在該月的上漲而大幅增長了5.1%。 ?vp' /l"  
　　Car and car parts sales jumped 10.6 per cent in August thanks to the now-defunct clunker scheme, while petrol stations' sales also jumped 5.1 per cent as the price of oil rose during the month. -J[*fv@  
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　　但即使剔除所有與汽車、汽油有關的銷售，零售額也增長了可觀的0.6%，得益于服飾、運動商品、書籍、電子產品和食品等項目的銷售增長。 }vgeQh-G  
　　But even excluding all auto-related purchases and petrol, retail sales were up a healthy 0.6 per cent with increased spending on clothing, sporting goods, books, electronics and food.