Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. =H`yzGt
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, d8uDSy
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it.
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For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. 8
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But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. d
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Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. 27+~!R~Yw
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. ]h#QA;
The resilience of such strategies could be tested.
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A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. UGlHe 7
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds I94-#*~I
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. ~F53{qxV
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. v8WT?%
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper GKbbwT0T|
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. ' )}itS8
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. =k* XGbU
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. k+%&dEE|vH
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. 3~Ls a"/
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— 1
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been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. d&+ 0JI<
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, c3Gy1#f:#2
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are.
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"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." QF
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首先是波動性。股市的不穩定可能會自食其果。 M D*dq
衡量標準普爾500指數期權價格隱含預期波動率的VIX指數 kh{3s:RQfC
在幾天內從15左右升至27以上。一些投資策略對它特別敏感。 M Rw4?HqB
例如，當波動性較低時，它們允許在投資組合中賦予股票更大的權重。 $M j\ 3
但當它上升并保持在高位時，一些投資者被迫拋售他們持有的一些股票，這就造成了更大的波動。 ar\ K8mj
一些價值與VIX掛鉤的交易所交易基金出現了資金外流。 '
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至少有一些投資者可能一直押注持續接近隱匿的波動性。 g1?9ge 1
這些策略的彈性是可以檢驗的。 /Wcx%P
更令人擔憂的是信貸市場，尤其是過去10年飆升的公司債務。 6-uLK'E
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借貸成本的急劇上升將會傷害那些需要對到期債券進行展期的公司， 'e*w8h
同時也會使美國龐大的私人信貸市場陷入混亂。 K9.Gj w
上一次全球經濟增長恐慌發生在2018年末，當時引發了恐慌性拋售，并一度有演變成信貸緊縮的危險。
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到目前為止，投資者持有高收益公司債券所需的國債息差 % k32 :qe
已擴大至4.3個百分點，其中大部分影響來自能源板塊的債券。這值得擔心，但不必恐慌。 rjiHP;-t1
根據彭博社報道，新的發行已經停止——到2月26日，華爾街已經三天沒有任何高等級債券發行。 *Ow2,{Nn
如果這種情況持續下去，將出現企業流動性緊縮。 tk *-Cx?_
降息并不能彌補這種混亂。但它們可以幫助穩定信貸市場。 x{8h3.ZQ,
過去，美聯儲早期較為寬松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— "oNl!<ep
曾推動風險資產在面臨可怕逆風的情況下在晚周期出現反彈。 K6
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法國興業銀行的Kit Juckes表示兩周前， V2`Ud[
市場已經消化了美聯儲一次降息的影響�，F在是兩次。 |6b~c{bt
“除非關于Covid-19的新聞出現戲劇性變化，否則在幾周內， 市場可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 rm9>
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